Cinemazlowski My Oscars predictions

Feb 19, 2016

There is perhaps no other awards show on earth that captures people's interest like the Oscars. For the past 88 years, the ceremony has built a mythical presence on the world stage thanks to its ability to draw seemingly every star on the planet into one theatre and reward them for bringing magic to life on the big screen.

As a professional movie critic, I see over 150 movies a year. The following are the nominees in the top five categories this year, and who I'm predicting should and will win the awards and which ones are worth seeing.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh ("The Hateful Eight"), Rooney Mara ("Carol"), Rachel McAdams ("Spotlight"), Alicia Vikander ("The Danish Girl"), Kate Winslet ("Steve Jobs")

The Breakdown: "The Hateful Eight" was too violently ugly and paled in comparison to fellow Western "The Revenant," so count Leigh out. Mara drew a lot of hype for the lesbian drama "Carol," but the movie really belonged to costar Cate Blanchett. Rachel McAdams was really part of a superbly woven ensemble rather than a flashy role. Winslet was great in a movie few really liked. Vikander showed range with a second great role in "Ex Machina" last year, and has the Politically Correct vote as the supportive wife of the world's first transgender man.

Worth Seeing: "Spotlight" (though this is tough but fair exploration of the Catholic Church's priest-abuse cases), "Steve Jobs" (though it's on DVD soon, and a highly cold and intellectual take on the guy, not exactly romantic).

Not Worth Seeing: "Carol" is cold, slow and is about a manipulative closeted lesbian woman who abandons her child when her husband gives her an ultimatum, not to mention cheating on him and making a fool out of him and then manipulating her female lovers; "The Danish Girl" features a true but bizarre marriage between the world's first transgender man to have the transfomational surgery and his way too supportive wife; "The Hateful Eight" is indeed hateful, profane, bloody and often unpleasant, not to mention second-rate compared to much of Tarantino's work. 

Should Win: Kate Winslet

Will Win: Alicia Vikander

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Christian Bale ("The Big Short"), Tom Hardy ("The Revenant"), Mark Ruffalo ("Spotlight"), Mark Rylance ("Bridge of Spies"), Sylvester Stallone ("Creed")

The Breakdown: There's no point in even analyzing this category, as Stallone recovered from a career filled with mediocre action flicks and bad choices to portray one of film history's most beloved figures – Rocky Balboa – again. The fact that the Academy can finally correct the oversight of leaving him without a statue for the first "Rocky" in 1976 and honor one of the nicest guys in the business for his strongest turn ever in the role makes this a slam dunk.

Worth Seeing: "The Big Short" uses comedy a lot to explain the 2008 financial meltdown, but is still too complex at times to be enjoyable, and features a lot of foul language and a couple of brief strip club scenes though mostly played for laughs over prurience, but some will enjoy it; "The Revenant" is a powerful tale of a father trying to care for his son and then avenge his son's death and his own near-death amid incredibly harsh circumstances including a bear attack, but is compelling and extremely well-made; and "Spotlight" are evaluated above; "Bridge of Spies" is a fine spy thriller set in WWII; and "Creed" is the best of them all, a rousing new tale about Rocky Balboa as an older man passing on his wisdom while battling cancer.

Should Win: Sylvester Stallone

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: Cate Blanchett ("Carol"),.Brie Larson ("Room"), Jennifer Lawrence ("Joy"), Charlotte Rampling ("45 Years"), Saiorse Ronan ("Brooklyn")

The Breakdown: Blanchett has won before and played a cold, calculating and unlikable woman. Larson came out of nowhere to blow critics away with her powerful portrayal of a mother who has to raise her young son under harrowing circumstances and decide to risk their lives to escape. Lawrence was great, but "Joy" didn't connect with audiences as much as her last two nominated films, "Silver Linings Playbook" and "American Hustle," did. Rampling's portrayal of a long-suffering wife whose marriage falls apart after decades was so little-seen it's lucky to be nominated. Ronan is absolutely superb in a wonderfully pro-Catholic period romance, but as a 20-year-old she'll have plenty of other chances ahead.

Worth Seeing: "Room" is somewhat disturbing in its first half, but is still a remarkable story of a mother's love for her child in difficult circumstances and winds up with a powerfully uplifting second half, my favorite movie out of all Oscar nominees this year; "Joy" is enjoyable but drags in places, though it's almost totally clean and has an uplifting true story of a woman who stood by her family through much hardship; "Brooklyn" is not only a beautiful and moving romance, but the most positive portrayal of Catholics in ages. 

Not Worth Seeing: "Carol" (See above). 

Should Win: Brie Larson

Will Win: Brie Larson

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: Bryan Cranston ("Trumbo"), Matt Damon ("The Martian"), Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Revenant"), Michael Fassbender ("Steve Jobs"), Eddie Redmayne ("The Danish Girl")

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The Breakdown: Cranston won numerous Emmys for "Breaking Bad" and will have to settle for a nomination here since he's seen mainly as a TV actor. Damon was fantastic in a role that was almost a solo showcase with a wealth of emotions involved.  DiCaprio has been trying for over 20 years to win an Oscar with six nominations, and was subjected to everything from a fake yet brutal bear attack, vicious weather conditions and really bad facial hair here. Fassbender, like Winslet, does a superb job in a vastly underseen movie and played an unlikable man to boot. Redmayne just won last year for "The Theory of Everything" and was clearly nominated not for range here –which he barely showed – but for the Politically Correct reason of portraying the world's first transgender man in a movie that was heavily hyped yet still flopped badly.

Worth Seeing: "Trumbo" features Cranston in a fun, flashy take on 1950s screenwriter Dalton Trumbo battling the Communist blacklist, and has a strong message of forgiveness; "The Martian" is a superb film with many great layers to it and has a positive sense of faith in God; "The Revenant" (see above)' "Steve Jobs" (see above) 

Not Worth Seeing: "The Danish Girl" (see above). 

Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: "The Big Short," "Bridge of Spies," "Brooklyn," "Mad Max:Fury Road," "The Martian," "The Revenant," "Room," "Spotlight"

The Breakdown: The Academy has only itself to blame for the controversy over lack of diversity, since it is allowed 10 Best Picture nominations yet inexplicably stopped at eight when the African American-centered films "Creed" and "Straight Outta Compton" easily could and should have been nominated.

"The Big Short" scored points for managing to explain the 2008 financial crisis to laymen with humor and urgency, and it's considered one of three viable winners together with "The Revenant" and "Spotlight," but it still left me emotionally cold and somewhat confused by its arcane subject matter. "The Revenant" was an incredible epic shot rapidly against very difficult weather and geographical circumstances, but its director just won Best Picture last year and no director has won Best Picture two years in a row since the 1930s.

"Spotlight" handled the Catholic Church's priest abuse cases with remarkable fairness, and seems to have the right combination of acting, writing and direction to take the top prize. "Bridge of Spies" didn't register strongly with the public, and "Mad Max" will win a slew of technical awards for its look and sound but was too ugly in its subject matter to win here. 

"The Martian," is terrific and smart entertainment, but is hurt by its lack of having won major Golden Globes and other second-tier awards means it'll have to be an also-ran here. "Room" was my favorite movie of this bunch, thanks to an amazing story that makes viewers feel terribly claustrophobic as they watch the young mother and her son attempt to live life in a tiny space, then leaves jaws dropped and pulses racing with a thrilling escape sequence before winding up as a powerful tale of emotional adjustment to the difficulties of the outside world.  It is the least-seen of all these films and deserves much better, so please check it out. 

WORTH SEEING: "The Big Short" (See above), "Bridge of Spies" (See above), "The Revenant" (See above), "Spotlight" (see above), "The Martian" (see above), "Room" (See above), "Brooklyn" (See above).

NOT WORTH SEEING: "Mad Max: Fury Road" was liked by many, but I never understood the hype, as it's an overly violent, grim, unpleasant nonstop chase by ugly people in ugly surroundings who will do ugly things to stay alive. 

SHOULD WIN: "Room"

WILL WIN: "Spotlight"

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