Four U.S. Senate races to watch: Can Democrats hold on to their majority in November?

Washington, D.C. Newsroom, Sep 30, 2024 / 13:53 pm

Will the Democrats maintain their narrow majority in the U.S. Senate? The answer could depend on what happens in Montana, Ohio, Texas, and Florida. 

There are 34 seats up in November — 23 are held by Democrats and 11 by Republicans. Currently, the Democrats have 51 seats to the Republicans’ 49 — with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin, West Virginia is expected to move to the Republican column in the solidly red state. 

For the Democrats to hold on to their majority, all of their incumbents need to be reelected and they need to either flip a Republican seat or win the presidency. In the event of a 50-50 split, the vice president represents the tiebreaking vote.

Fewer than six weeks until Election Day, here are four races that could determine which party controls the Senate. 

Montana: likely Republican pickup

Three-term Sen. Jon Tester is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, making Montana the best chance for Republicans to pick up a seat. Born and raised in Montana, Tester has leveraged his image as a third-generation Montanan farmer against his opponent, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, originally from Minnesota. 

However, Sheehy is polling seven points ahead of Tester in his home state despite being tagged as a carpetbagger. In recent years, Montana has welcomed more transplants from other states, according to national census data, which found that 51,600 more people relocated to Montana than any other state in the past four years. 

Montana is also notably one of 10 states where an abortion referendum will appear on the ballot. Tester has repeatedly gone after Sheehy for his stated pro-life views, attempting to bolster his campaign by portraying Sheehy as a “no exceptions” pro-lifer (Sheehy has stated on multiple occasions that he believes in exceptions for rape, incest, and to save the life of the mother). 

Regardless, Tester’s strategy may come to nothing, as the state has a history of splitting its vote. In 2022, Montanans rejected the pro-life Born Alive Infant Protection Act ballot initiative but elected a pro-life candidate, Rep. Ryan Zinke, to its one congressional seat.

Lastly, former president Donald Trump, who won almost 60% of the vote in Montana in 2020, has a double-digit lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to polls, and may also help flip the seat.

Ohio: vulnerable Democrat

All eyes are on Ohio, a key swing state where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is polling ahead of Republican businessman Bernie Moreno by four points. However, polling for the presidential race shows Trump ahead, making Ohio a possible pickup for Republicans.

According to an Aug. 9 AdImpact report, the race is the first non-presidential race to surpass $300 million in spending on campaign advertising.

In Ohio, as in Montana, the Democratic incumbent is campaigning on the issue of abortion. 

Brown has repeatedly attacked Moreno for his pro-life views, often portraying him as an extremist who would support a national abortion ban based on comments the GOP candidate made in 2022 in which he described himself as “absolutely pro-life, no exceptions.” 

However, Moreno has since appeared to scale back his pro-life stance, expressing support for “commonsense restrictions” after 15 weeks and returning the issue to the states. Moreno has also slammed his opponent and the Democratic Party for seeming to treat its female voter base as though abortion is the only issue they care about. 

Texas and Florida: increasingly vulnerable Republicans

With the races in Montana and Ohio tightening, Democrats have begun rolling out extensive, multimillion-dollar ad campaigns in Texas and Florida — two deeply red states where Republican incumbents are engaged in surprisingly competitive races.  

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced the multimillion-dollar ad buy on Thursday, floating the possibility of additional funding rollouts for television ads in both states as the election cycle continues. 

In Texas, incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is polling only one point ahead of his Democrat challenger, Texas Rep. Colin Allred, whose campaign manager welcomed news of the Democrats’ recent ad spending gamble, describing Cruz as “weaker and more vulnerable than ever” due to the border crisis, his pro-life views on abortion, and concerns among voters about Social Security and Medicare. 

In Florida, the race is also tight between Republican Sen. Rick Scott and his Democrat opponent, former state Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. A recent poll shows Scott ahead of his opponent by only three points. 

Scott is wrapping up his first Senate term, which he won in 2018 by an even smaller margin of just 0.2 percentage points. 

Floridians in November will also vote on Amendment 4, a measure that would prohibit the state from restricting abortion access up to fetal viability, or around 24 weeks of pregnancy. Scott is pro-life and has publicly said he will be voting against the amendment — a move that could leave him vulnerable as polling predicts the measure’s success.