On the ground in Pennsylvania: Catholics are key swing voters in Harris-Trump showdown

Allentown, Pa., Sep 26, 2024 / 11:25 am

With Election Day less than a month and a half away, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are setting their sights on Pennsylvania — a politically divided state that could be the tipping point in the 2024 election.

In pursuit of the state’s 19 electoral votes, both Harris and Trump campaigns are pouring resources into the Keystone State, where polls are showing the race to be in a virtual dead heat. In 2020, Biden won the state by only 81,660 votes, and Trump won it by less than a percentage point in 2016.

In this politically divided state, the race’s outcome could come down to a few swing counties where Biden narrowly edged Trump in 2020 as well as a key demographic: Catholic voters. In 2020, Trump carried the Catholic vote by a 13-point margin, according to a Washington Post exit poll. 

While Trump beat Biden in most of Pennsylvania’s rural counties in 2020, Biden made up for those losses by winning among urban voters. The suburbs on the outskirts of the cities of Philadelphia and Allentown, however, were deeply divided in 2016 and 2022, and are being hotly contested in 2024.

The suburban communities in Lehigh, Northampton, and Bucks are rich in swing voters, and many of them are Catholic: About one-quarter of the residents of the Lehigh and Northampton counties are Catholic, as are about one-third of Bucks County.

To judge by the yard signs in these areas, 2024 is shaping up to be another deeply divided race. A drive through the countryside and suburban neighborhoods of Northampton County found Trump yard signs outnumbering Harris signs, but inside the urban neighborhoods of Allentown and Bethlehem, Harris signs dominate. In suburban Bucks County, north of Philadelphia, residents appear evenly split.

Even Catholic voters CNA interviewed seemed split. While many Catholic Trump supporters said they were pro-life and that abortion was the most important issue for them in the election, a few Catholics indicated they were supporting Harris because of her pro-abortion views. Among non-Catholics, the economy is a top concern this election year.

Pennsylvania Catholics motivated by abortion issue

For many of the Catholics attending a pilgrimage at the National Centre of Padre Pio in Berks County, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 20, abortion — and the pro-life cause — is the most important issue in the election, and Trump is their candidate.

The event was organized by the Diocese of Allentown, which encompasses three counties that Trump won in 2020 (Berks, Carbon, and Schuylkill) and two counties that Biden won (Lehigh and Northampton). 

“I have pretty strong feelings about just ending life in the womb … [and] especially late-term abortion,” Jane Roberts, a Lehigh County resident, told CNA.

Roberts, who became Catholic this past Easter, said she intends to vote for Trump but is “also praying for Harris.” She said she is worried that regardless of who wins, the country could end up more divided. 

Karen Yanity, a resident of Northampton County, told CNA she intends to vote for Trump for several reasons, but “particularly the abortion issue.” Her husband, Jack, added that he supports Trump for other issues in addition to abortion, such as the economy and foreign policy.

Even among this group of conservative-leaning Catholics, there were some signs that Trump has his work cut out for him. One Catholic who spoke to CNA at the pilgrimage, while maintaining that he is “pro-life,” told CNA that he does not support the government restricting abortion. He declined to give his name and did not say whom he would vote for.

Another attendee, Marianne Lutz, a resident of Chester County, told CNA that the region appears “divided.” She said she plans to vote for Trump because he is more pro-life than Harris but added: “I understand why someone wouldn’t want to vote for Trump,” saying: “His mouth gets him in trouble.” 

Nick Gibboni, a Catholic in Montgomery County, told CNA that among his family and friends, “there seems to be a 50-50 split” on Trump and Harris. He said he is a member of the Constitution Party but will vote for Trump because “the issue of abortion is so paramount to me” and “so many lives … are taken by abortion.”

Divided Bucks County suburbs of Philadelphia

Families and other locals gathered at the Sept. 21 New Britain Township Veterans Committee Fall Festival in Bucks County, just outside of the county seat in Doylestown and less than an hour’s drive north of Philadelphia. 

Biden won the suburban county by less than 4.4 percentage points in 2020. Many homes outside of Doylestown displayed campaign signs in their yards, which were about evenly split between Trump and Harris. 

The event, which included kid-focused activities such as crafts and face painting, also hosted booths from the local Republican Party and Democratic Party. 

Barbara Young, a Catholic helping run a booth for the local Democratic Party at the festival, told CNA “it is very difficultto tell who is ahead” in Bucks County and said she often tells people “signs don’t vote.” 

Among the signs displayed on the booth promoting Harris and other Democratic candidates was one proclaiming “Choice is on the ballot” and another boosting Planned Parenthood, the largest provider of abortion clinics in the United States.

Before being prompted, Young addressed the apparent conflict between the abortion signs and the teachings of the Catholic Church, which considers all abortions a moral evil. 

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“How can a Catholic support Planned Parenthood, right?” she said as she pointed toward one of the signs. 

“I want that [decision] to be between my priest and my doctor and my family,” Young, a grandmother of eight, said. “... I don’t really want the government to make those kinds of personal issues up for debate.”

Young said she is “a profound advocate for the separation of church and state,” but she added that her faith does affect some of her political views. She told CNA she thinks Republicans support “every man for themselves” rather than helping the poor. She also said the country should “be able to embrace immigrants in a safe and legal way instead of demonizing them.”

Another Catholic Bucks County resident who declined to give her name told CNA that “the sanctity of life of a woman who chooses abortion is also valuable” and questioned whether abortion restrictions would reduce abortions in the United States. 

“I’d like to see nobody get an abortion, but I’d not like to see somebody die from a back-alley abortion,” she said.

The woman said she supports Harris, whom she called “a leader that will bring people together and not [be] smearing people in their own country [and] people in other countries.” She chastised Trump as someone who is “constantly putting people down,” adding: “I don’t think it’s going to get us anywhere.” 

One volunteer at the Republican Party’s booth told CNA she is optimistic about Trump flipping the county, noting that she sees more Trump yard signs than Harris signs and that a lot of people are stopping by the booth to convey support.

Jamie Walker, a Bucks County resident who stopped by the GOP booth, told CNA that the economy is her biggest concern, particularly “how much everything costs” and “how bad inflation is.” She said she intends to vote for Trump. 

Walker, who is Jewish, told CNA her religion also affects her views, arguing that Harris “is not a strong supporter of Israel.”

Jon Moran, who was at the fair with his young son, told CNA that he is “not very happy with [the] candidates again,” but that “we need Trump.” He said he originally planned to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. but will now support Trump after Kennedy dropped out of the race and endorsed the former president. 

Although Moran, who is Presbyterian, said he supports legal abortion and disagrees with Trump on the issue, he said the economy was better under the former president, which “should be the No. 1 [issue] for everybody.” 

The former ‘Steel City’ of Bethlehem

Northampton County, where Biden in 2020 received his narrowest victory margin in Pennsylvania, was home to one of the largest steel factories in the country: the Bethlehem Steel Corporation, known colloquially as “the Bethlehem Steel” or simply “the Steel.” Although once a global powerhouse, the business rapidly declined throughout the ‘80s and ‘90s before finally shuttering in 2003. 

The factory has been replaced with a museum, an events center, a mall, a casino, and a hotel despite much of the iconic infrastructure remaining intact. On the opposite side of the state, the Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel Corporation has become a campaign issue in 2024, with both candidates vowing to oppose the sale of the business to a Japanese company.

Several former employees of the Bethlehem Steel gathered at the National Museum of Industrial History, situated on the grounds of the former steel factory on the south side of the city, for a Steel Weekend and Steelworkers Reunion event on Sept. 21 and Sept. 22. 

CNA spoke with two Catholics who are concerned about the economy in Pennsylvania but who are on opposite ends of the political divide.

Greg Buragino — who worked in the steel industry for 47 years, 10 of which were at the Bethlehem Steel — told CNA that some politicians in the 1990s promised that the decline of steel would be offset by a growth of other industries, such as technology.

“I thought it was ridiculous then and I think it’s ridiculous now,” Buragino said. 

Buragino blamed “certain politicians [who] are concerned with climate change” for a loss of jobs in manufacturing and energy in the United States and for the rising cost of living. He criticized Harris and the Democratic Party for environmental regulations and said he would support “the candidate here not voting for the Green New Deal.”

Jim Brandl, who spent five summers working as a rigger at the Bethlehem Steel, disagreed with that analysis.

“Everything revolved around the steel company [but] … so many other industries came in here” after the Bethlehem Steel declined, Brandl said. His father and his grandfather also worked at the Steel. 

Although he is a registered Republican, Brandl told CNA he would support the candidate with “honesty, integrity, [and] truthfulness,” which he said is “not Trump.”