UN predicts steep declines in population growth

Nov 11, 2004 / 22:00 pm

The United Nations Population Division released another report recently that predicts a large aging population and sharp declines in population growth. This is the first UN report to look 300 years down the line, reported the Catholic Family & Human Rights Institute.

The report, titled “World Population to 2300," states that these predictions are mostly "guesses."

The report's "medium scenario" predicts a world population of 8.4 billion by 2200 after a peak of 9.2 billion in 2075.

Global population is expected to decline because many developed countries will sustain a long-term growth rate, for up to 100 years, below the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, says the report. By 2045-2050, "139 countries will have total fertility under 2.0," says the report

The report expects Europe to shrink from its current 728 million to 538 million by 2100. 

One of the most alarming predictions in the report is that the world population will experience a massive aging. Decreased fertility will shrivel the proportion of children in the world population from 30 percent to 16 percent by 2100. This, together with increased life expectancy, will cause the median age to rise from 26 years in 2000 to 50 years in 2300, and the proportion of those aged 65 or over will rocket from 7 percent in 2000 to 32 percent in 2300.

The report also projects a great increase in population of the very old (those aged 80 or older). Even by 2100 their population should rise to 11 times the number in 2000, and by 2300 they will be 17 percent of the population, contrasted with the current one percent.